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El Niño is officially here
TL;DR The World Meteorological Organization confirmed on 2 June that El Niño conditions are developing, putting emergence at 80% for June–August and…
Jun 8
•
Francois Souchet
Allianz estimates heat cost for Germany: $131bn
TL;DR Allianz Trade has put a number on European heat: German output could be reduced by up to $131bn by 2030.
Jun 1
•
Francois Souchet
May 2026
Reinsurance softens while physical signals build.
TL;DR Property catastrophe reinsurance pricing is softening 15-20%+ at mid-year renewals, even as Allstate – an insurer – has booked $870m of April…
May 27
•
Francois Souchet
Climate hits the field while Tariffs raise the price.
TL;DR US domestic climate shocks resulted in a 95-100% orchard loss in Utah, $150-200m of damages to specialty crops in Pennsylvania, while persistent…
May 18
•
Francois Souchet
1
When the field moves faster than the futures
TL;DR This week showed three pricing asymmetries: wheat futures drifting while US Plains drought spreads, cocoa aggressively pricing the West Africa…
May 12
•
Francois Souchet
99.9%: When "Secondary" Becomes Primary
TL;DR This week’s lead signal: Swiss Re’s latest sigma report shows secondary perils – wildfire and severe convective storms – accounted for 99.9% of…
May 5
•
Francois Souchet
April 2026
19 of 20 world's hottest cities are in India
TL;DR What happened: India is experiencing its earliest and most severe heat wave on record, with 19 of the world’s 20 hottest cities now located there…
Apr 27
•
Francois Souchet
Data centres want cat bonds now
No edition last week as we were publishing our latest Curb Your Sustainability piece, "The Hidden Vicious Cycle," which explores how extreme heat makes…
Apr 20
•
Francois Souchet
US wheat acres hit lowest since 1919
TL;DR What happened: USDA’s Prospective Plantings report confirmed a corn-to-soy acreage shift (corn -3.5m acres, soy +4%).
Apr 7
•
Francois Souchet
March 2026
Oklahoma wheat at breaking point
TL;DR What happened: The record March heat dome enters its second week, affecting Oklahoma’s winter wheat crop at its most vulnerable growth stage.
Mar 30
•
Francois Souchet
44°C in March; 500k acres burning
Climate on the Ledger is back after a short break.
Mar 25
•
Francois Souchet
Climate Hits the Cost of Capital
TL;DR This week’s lead signal: The ECB has documented that climate disasters, particularly storms and droughts, increase sovereign borrowing costs by up…
Mar 2
•
Francois Souchet
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